Leon Panetta on Iran, Ukraine and the new global power struggle

lead image

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 37

WHEELIN’ AND DEALIN’: Gov. Kathy Hochul claimed this morning she has a budget deal. Moments later, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie told reporters that, actually, nothing is final.

It’s a Planet Albany pantomime that’s played out over the last several years — a governor anxious to tout what's generally been agreed to after a weeks-long impasse and an Assembly speaker who denies anything is truly finalized.

Only this year is different.

Heastie was noticeably more exasperated than in prior years when he told reporters this morning that the Legislature has yet to sign off on a budget agreement, contradicting the governor’s victory lap.

“There’s no budget deal,” the Bronx Democrat said. “There’s no deal. I said to her last night I was comfortable with saying we’re close. It’s close.”

He pledged to no longer discuss policy-related matters with Democratic lawmakers until the budget’s financial picture was in clear focus — suggesting he’s at something of a breaking point with a governor he considers an ally.

“We’ve signed off on nothing major,” he said. “This is what’s wrong with this process.”

Earlier in the morning, Hochul stood in the Red Room praising the “general agreement” (a chestnut that will join the pantheon of other state budget-deal upspeak like “tentative framework”).

She ran through a list of what has been, well, generally agreed to: Protections for undocumented immigrants, changing the environmental review process in order to fast-track home building and a package of car insurance laws meant to reduce premium costs.

Budget details tend to matter, not just to the 19 million New Yorkers who the document will impact, but to the army of advocates, lobbyists, staffers and lawmakers who have sweated the specifics for the last four months. And what’s yet to be determined is consequential.

The pied-à-terre tax on pricey second homes? 

“We are working to come up with the right way to calculate,” Hochul said. “What you have is a rather bizarre property tax system in New York City right now.”

Changing the Tier 6 pension, a move that may cost $1.5 billion?

“We’ll release those numbers as soon as it’s absolutely done, but it won’t be the scale that was out there in the news,” she said.

Why come out now with so much TBD?

“All these financial details — as we’ve done in the past — we talk about initially the policy agreements, and this is a policy agreement we’ve accomplished, working tirelessly with the two leaders I have such respect for, Carl Heastie and Andrea Stewart-Cousins,” Hochul said.

It’s true that this has been Hochul’s strategy in the late stages of the budget — to fete the policy wins and leave the financial stuff written in pencil.

It’s also true that most voters aren’t following the blow-by-blow of the arcane Albany process and care far more about the results. As she runs for reelection, Hochul can show voters victories on issues like a school cellphone ban.

But while the governor has long placed a bet on voters not minding late budgets, Republicans are eager to trot out the “D” word — dysfunction — to describe the Albany fracas.

“We’ve gone so far away from having responsible leadership in this state and caring about what it means to have a budget on time,” Republican Assembly Minority Leader Ed Ra said. “It’s May 7 — the latest budget in my time in the Legislature — and she’s out here announcing a deal that doesn’t actually exist.” — Nick Reisman

From the Capitol

WONKS WEIGH IN: As noted above, details on the state’s spending plan remain scant. But some experts are seeing good news in what’s out there.

The fiscal hawks at the Citizens Budget Commission applauded policy measures like changes to the State Environmental Quality Review Act that were made to spur more home building, as well as the car insurance changes

Still, the group has concerns even as the final numbers aren’t yet clear. The $268 billion topline spending figure may increase once the dust settles.

“What we do know is that the budget is bigger, but not likely better for fiscal stability compared to the governor’s proposal,” the group said. — Nick Reisman

FROM CITY HALL

ICE CLASH: Mayor Zohran Mamdani is facing mounting pressure from progressive leaders to enact stricter rules on how the NYPD can interact with federal immigration authorities — the latest sign of a broadening chasm between the mayor and his own supporters, our Chris Sommerfeldt reports today.

Attention on the issue intensified Saturday when police officers blocked protesters advancing toward U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents who were transporting an immigrant detainee from a Brooklyn hospital. As video of the chaos went viral, accusations that Mamdani’s NYPD had coordinated with ICE in violation of local sanctuary laws quickly accumulated. The mayor has rejected that claim.

In a letter to Mamdani, Rep. Nydia Velázquez, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and four other elected Democrats who endorsed the mayor’s 2025 campaign wrote that they believe the NYPD “coordinated on the ground with ICE agents” outside the hospital. And they implored him to immediately overhaul NYPD policies in response.

“Officers arriving at a scene where federal agents are already operating cannot be left to improvise. They need a bright-line rule, communicated up and down the chain of command, that informs them when to disengage, when to step back, when to refuse a request for assistance, and how to document what they observed,” they wrote in the Wednesday letter, which was obtained by POLITICO. “The absence of such a standard, or the failure to enforce one, is how we ended up with NYPD officers visibly working alongside ICE outside a hospital.”

Specifically, they called on Mamdani to release new rules within 30 days that “clearly outline” how NYPD officers should interact with ICE agents in the field. The rules, they wrote, should dictate when “disengagement” and “refusal of assistance” to ICE is appropriate so NYPD officers “do not aid, facilitate, or appear to facilitate civil immigration enforcement.”

Among the letter’s other signatories was state Sen. Julia Salazar, one of the earliest supporters of Mamdani’s 2025 mayoral campaign and a fellow democratic socialist.

The fact that Mamdani’s elected supporters opted to call him out in such a direct way is a strong indication elements of his base are growing frustrated with his handling of public safety issues — and his perceived drift to the political center since entering City Hall.

Read more from Chris in POLITICO Pro.

SECOND TRY: Council Speaker Julie Menin is moving forward with a controversial bill that would boost pay for home health workers — legislation that’s also tangled up with her run for the leadership post last year.

As POLITICO previously reported, Menin is working with Council Member Chris Marte on a measure that would outlaw 24-hour shifts for home health aides who are only paid for 13 hours. Their collaboration began to unfold after Marte dropped his own bid for the speakership last fall and threw his support behind Menin.

The effort, however, has put the speaker in a political bind. A previous version of the bill drew opposition from major labor unions, the mayor and Hochul over concerns it would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, endanger patients and deprive workers of flexibility.

Menin, in the hopes of blunting that opposition, prepped a new version for a vote last night. The modified bill exempts home health workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, delays the implementation for a year and allows home health workers to opt into longer shifts through the fall of 2027.

“As part of the ongoing legislative process, the Council has updated the bill after many conversations with stakeholders,” Council spokesperson Benjamin Fang said in a statement. “We look forward to phasing out the 24-hour workday, an outdated practice that places workers under extreme physical and emotional strain."

The changes to the bill, however, do not seem to have appeased much of the opposition that killed it the first time around. A person with knowledge of negotiations said the modified version sparked backlash this morning. The legislation still sticks the state with the cost — the reason Hochul opposed it last time around. And some of the same critics are now reiterating their opposition, putting the bill on shaky ground should Menin attempt to bring it to a vote.

“This bill still leaves people with disabilities without care, creates legal conflicts with State Medicaid rules, lacks the funding necessary to keep from endangering the lives of people with disabilities, and risks destabilizing access to critical care for thousands of New Yorkers,” a Legal Aid Society spokesperson said in a statement. “We can and must pursue reforms that protect home care workers from exploitation without jeopardizing the health, independence, and dignity of the people who depend on these services every day.” — Joe Anuta

IN OTHER NEWS

— QUOTE CONTROVERSY: A recent TV ad from Anthony Constantino’s congressional campaign used a fabricated quote attributed to the Times Union. The dubiously sourced claim? “Constantino is now guaranteed to be a major entity in Congress.” (Times Union)

— STUDENT EXODUS: Enrollment in New York City’s public schools could plunge by as many as 153,000 students over the next decade. Falling fertility rates and more charter schools are driving the downturn. (The New York Times)

— ICE UPHEAVAL: Nigerian immigrant sues ICE after his arrest sparked chaotic protests in Brooklyn. Chidozie Wilson Okeke's lawsuit says he was “unlawfully, brutally and violently detained.” (Gothamist)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Tennessee’s Republican-controlled legislature approved a new congressional map Thursday that dismantles the state’s majority-Black district and will likely secure them an all-GOP federal delegation.

The redraw comes as Republican-led Southern states scramble to enact new maps in the wake of last week’s Supreme Court ruling that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and opened the door to states blowing up blue districts drawn to protect the voting power of racial minorities.

The new map aims to draw the state’s lone Democratic congressional representative — Rep. Steve Cohen — out of his Memphis-area seat by splitting up majority-Black Shelby County. It also divides Maury County, likely delivering a more favorable district to Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list.

“The Supreme Court has opined that redistricting, like the judicial system, should be color-blind,” said Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton in a social media post. “The decision indicated states can redistrict based off partisan politics.”

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, is expected to sign the map into law imminently. He called the legislature into a special session last week to pass the map.

“We owe it to Tennesseans to ensure our congressional districts accurately reflect the will of Tennessee voters,” Lee said in a statement Friday. “After consultation with the Lt. Governor, Speaker of the House, Attorney General, and Secretary of State, I believe the General Assembly has a responsibility to review the map and ensure it remains fair, legal, and defensible.”

Tennessee is the first state to finalize a new congressional map after last week’s Supreme Court decision. Louisiana’s GOP-controlled legislature is expected to unveil a new map as soon as this week, and Republicans in South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama are pushing to do the same.

Andrew Howard contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump has made the SAVE America Act a central GOP priority ahead of the midterms. Voters still don't know how to feel about it.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show that while many Americans support some core provisions of the SAVE America Act — such as requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote — that support is not overwhelming. And they are far less certain about the sweeping elections bill overall, even as Trump has for months pressured Republican lawmakers to pass it.

Democrats in particular oppose much of the SAVE Act, and many of them are unenthusiastic even about the voter ID provisions that generate the broadest support — a sign that Trump is prioritizing legislation that has little crossover appeal.

A 42 percent plurality of voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 back requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote, including when registering by mail. But that number is dwarfed by the three-quarters of Trump 2024 voters who support such a measure, according to the survey conducted by Public First.

Asked about the bill overall — by name, but without providing information on what’s included — just 37 percent of Americans said they support it, and 21 percent oppose it. A larger share, 42 percent, say they neither support nor oppose the SAVE America Act, or are unsure.

Slightly more Americans say the bill will make elections fairer (38 percent) than those who say it will make elections less fair (32 percent). But 30 percent say they don’t know — another sign that their views on the issue are still forming even as the president wields it as a campaign cudgel.

“We are either going to fix” elections, he wrote on his Truth Social recently, casting it in existential terms, “or we won’t have a Country any longer.”

The findings reveal that though voter ID and proof of citizenship are popular, the SAVE America Act has not broken through in the same way. In addition to requiring proof of citizenship, the bill would also require states to regularly review voter lists and remove non-citizens.

“Voter ID is very popular, but the SAVE Act has been loaded up with other stuff,” said Buzz Brockway, a GOP strategist and former state representative in Georgia. “I think Senate Republicans should strip the bill back to Voter ID only. It still won’t pass because of Democratic opposition, but it would be a more popular bill.”

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said the SAVE America Act is “commonsense legislation supported by the vast majority of Americans … who want to ensure our elections are secure and that only American citizens vote in American elections.”

The SAVE America Act passed the House in February and has stalled in the Senate amid GOP divisions and staunch Democratic opposition. Four Republican senators — Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — recently voted against an amendment that would have helped the legislation get across the finish line as part of a broader reconciliation package, raising new questions about its path forward in a narrowly divided Congress.

Critics of the legislation say it would make it much harder for Americans who lack the proper documentation — such as a paper copy of a birth certificate or passport — to vote.

“The SAVE Act will make it exceedingly and unacceptably difficult for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Americans, to be heard,” Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock said in a brief interview recently. “And so if all the people in the election can't be heard, who are eligible to vote, then that's something other than democracy.”

“I don’t think the American public knows what is in store for them if [the SAVE ACT] passes,” said Hawaii Democratic Sen. Mazie Hirono. “Millions of people are going to need to re-register.”

In the absence of movement in Congress, Republicans in some statesare pushing forward with their own efforts to impose proof of citizenship requirements to their voting laws. Several red states, including Arkansas and Kansas, are expected to vote on measures this November that mirror the federal SAVE America Act.

Lawmakers in the battlegrounds of Alaska and Michigan have also garnered the required signatures to put citizenship questions before voters — two states that could test whether Americans’ support for such measures in public opinion polling translates to the ballot box.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 36 

ALL’S FARE: City Council Speaker Julie Menin portrayed Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s administration today as stuck running a failing mass transit discount program.

The alternative? Her own plan to provide free fares to hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers.

Drawing that very particular contrast served as an attempt to turn the tables on Mamdani, who made free buses a key campaign pledge. Menin’s preferred approach is to expand Fair Fares — an existing discount for low-income residents — into a free bus and subway program for people at or below 150 percent of the poverty level.

In the process, Menin and other Council members poked the administration for not enrolling enough people in the current iteration of Fair Fares by failing to cut unnecessary red tape. Right now, less than 40 percent of eligible people participate, leaving half a million New Yorkers paying full freight for rides they could get at half price.

Menin called it “failing” and blamed a multi-step enrollment process that includes downloading an app and filing out a lengthy form.

"There has to be a recognition that the system is broken," she said during a Council hearing today.

Rebecca Chew, a chief program officer from the city’s Human Resources Administration, told Menin the agency “worked hard to streamline the process and identify efficiencies, and it's something we're continuously looking at to improve and refine.” Later, Chew said that nearly half the people enrolled in one year — right now that’s 380,000 — fail to re-enroll in the next.

Fair Fares largely predates Mamdani, but under lengthy questioning from Council Member Crystal Hudson, Chew and her colleagues did not offer specific targets for improving enrollment.

The Council is seeking to make enrollment automatic.

Menin opened the hearing by saying she was "very disappointed" in the Mamdani administration for not sending the head of the Department of Social Services to testify.

"I'd be remiss if I did not express our deep disappointment in that," she said.

Mamdani has not yet taken a position on the Council proposal.

The democratic socialist has long been skeptical of means-tested programs. But by his own admission, his free-buses-for-all plan isn’t going to happen this year, which creates an awkward situation: He now appears unwilling to support an arguably half-loaf solution that would nonetheless help hundreds of thousands of people ride the bus and subway for free.

"Fair Fares is an important tool for low-income New Yorkers but does not reach enough of them," Mamdani spokesperson Jeremy Edwards said in an email. "The administration is reviewing all Fair Fares proposals. We will continue to encourage eligible residents to enroll in Fair Fares and work with city and state partners to make transit more affordable for all New Yorkers." — Ry Rivard

From the Capitol

WEDDING BELL$: With New York City mired in red ink, one new idea might help Mamdani make a very small dent in the very big budget shortfall.

City officials have reached out to state lawmakers to let the City Council hike the cost of a City Hall wedding from $25 to $55 and the fee for a marriage license from $25 to $60.

The fee increases would be a miniscule boon to the city’s financial needs — perhaps to the tune of $4 million a year. And the sponsors in the state Legislature say the bill isn’t written with balancing the budget in mind

The fees haven’t been increased since the early 1990s, and the administrative costs of performing a wedding have since risen to $126 — meaning the total fee hike to $115 would simply mean city government loses less money on each ceremony.

“This is a request from the Marriage Bureau, so I think it makes sense,” said state Sen. John Liu, who introduced a bill on the subject Tuesday. “It’s important that people don’t view this as a marriage penalty — no one likes fees and no one likes fee increases, but it’s been the same for decades.”

Assembly Judiciary Committee Chair Charles Lavine expects critics won’t hesitate to gripe about the minor change: “’If we make it more expensive to get married, then fewer people will get married,’” he said, predicting the GOP response.

The issue is being discussed outside of budget talks, so it will need to be dealt with in the dwindling number of session days before state lawmakers pack it in on June 4.

“We are going to be stuck with a handful of legislative days,” Lavine said. “I hope it’ll work. It’s about time those fees will be made a little more substantial.”

Mamdani has paid more attention to the Marriage Bureau than any of his predecessors — he’s notably the only modern mayor to stop by the City Clerk’s office to officiate ceremonies himself. — Bill Mahoney

NO ICE MELT: White House border czar Tom Homan's threat of an ICE surge into New York if a package of sanctuary measures are approved isn't deterring Democratic state lawmakers.

"If anything, it makes me want to double down," Democratic state Sen. Pat Fahy said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and state lawmakers are close to an agreement on a series of bills that would limit how federal immigration agencies like ICE can coordinate with local police departments. They also plan to limit where civil deportation warrants can be executed, blocking them from being carried out in locations like educational facilities and houses of worship.

Read more from POLITICO’s Nick Reisman

FROM CITY HALL

ICE VENDOR FACES HEAT: Mamdani’s administration is scrutinizing NYPD contracts with a surveillance technology company that’s faced criticism for doing business with federal immigration authorities, our Chris Sommerfeldt reports today.

The examination of the NYPD’s dealings with Vigilant Solutions is part of an ongoing audit process being conducted by Mamdani’s administration at the police department and five other city agencies.

Mamdani ordered the reviews in February with the stated goal of strengthening New York City’s sanctuary laws as President Donald Trump’s administration continues its aggressive — and at times lethal — immigration crackdowns across the U.S. The laws bar city employees and resources from being used to assist federal authorities in civil immigration matters.

The revelation that the NYPD audit is looking at a private company indicates Mamdani wants to scrutinize not just whether the department is complying with the sanctuary laws but also its vendors. In ordering the audits, Mamdani specified they may result in “changes and updates to policies and protocols,” suggesting the singling out of Vigilant could come with repercussions for its NYPD contracts.

Asked why the police department’s Vigilant connections are being scrutinized in particular, mayoral spokesperson Sam Raskin provided little clarity. “The Mamdani administration has engaged with a number of agencies on their policies, guidelines and procedures related to federal immigration enforcement,” he said Tuesday. “We will share more soon."

As part of the audit process, a questionnaire directed the NYPD to submit a “draft audit” to the mayor’s office with responses to all inquiries by April 20. The form then says the NYPD and the mayor’s office would review the draft before a finalized submission to Mamdani by Thursday.

Read the story from Chris in POLITICO here. 

ON A RELATED MATTER: When Jeff Blau of Related Companies sat for an interview at a real estate conference Wednesday, he likely expected a friendly crowd.

But three separate times during a 30-minute interview, activists from the left-leaning New York Communities for Change interrupted his remarks to protest a tentative Adams administration deal under which Blau’s firm would benefit from some $2 billion in public subsidies to complete Hudson Yards.

“$2 billion of taxpayer’s money!” the activists, who were quickly rushed out of the room, shouted. “Shame on you! Shame on you, Related!”

The progressive advocacy group is pushing the Mamdani administration to scrap the public financing scheme — calling it a “boondoggle” and the “biggest corporate bailout in New York City history.”

That tentative deal is now up to Mamdani, but he’s not rushing to move it forward. Mayoral spokesperson Matt Rauschenbach said Wednesday: “We are not actively engaged in negotiations to move this project forward at this time.”

Blau said he still hopes to advance the project.

“Our hope is that we will announce a transaction this year, we’ll start construction on another 3 million square foot office building and probably start about 2,500 apartments at the same time, 625 affordable units,” Blau said at the conference. “So really a great addition to New York City.”

The ticketed event Wednesday was hosted by The Real Deal, a trade publication that covers the real estate industry. Founder and publisher Amir Korangy, who interviewed Blau, slammed the interruptions.

“This is not the right venue for this,” Korangy said, clearly exasperated by the third instance. “This was clearly coordinated.”

He added, to some chuckles, “I mean, at least they bought tickets.”

Blau was generally bullish on New York City and offered some praise of the mayor, even as other members of the business elite have raised concerns about his approach in recent days.

“I think the mayor is very, very supportive of new housing construction and is trying to eliminate barriers,” Blau said.
“He’s just getting started and our hope is that he will continue to do that and he will focus on things like [485-x] and engage with the private sector,” he added, referring to the property tax incentive for New York City residential projects that has garnered criticism from the industry.

“We're doing things all around the country and even globally, but New York City is our home,” Blau continued. “This is the greatest city in the world, despite the protesters. I'm committed to New York City.” — Janaki Chadha

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

BLAKEMAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman demurred when asked today if he believed in climate change during a press conference at the state Capitol.

“Would it be accurate to say that you believe in climate change?” Blakeman was asked.

“I’m not a scientist and I’m not an engineer,” he responded. “Anytime we can make the environment better with a commonsense solution that’s affordable and makes sense, why not?”

Minutes before, Blakeman stressed to reporters that concerns about climate change shouldn’t guide energy policy decisions.

“To take drastic measures and pretend that you’re actually going to change the carbon footprint of our state and that’s going to have a material effect on the world is complete, utter fiction,” Blakeman said. “Our carbon footprint is miniscule compared to the rest of the world.”

His comments come as Democrats like Hochul are struggling to keep up with the state’s ambitious green policies. The governor poised to win changes to weaken New York's climate law in the budget, eliminating a near-term deadline to reduce emissions.

Playbook followed up with Blakeman’s campaign this afternoon to ask if he’s landed on a stance on whether he believes climate change is real. We haven’t heard back yet. — Jason Beeferman

IN OTHER NEWS

— SCRUB-A-DUB: Mamdani’s administration has quietly removed a landing page on the city Economic Development Corporation’s website promoting New York City’s business ties to Israel. (Free Beacon)

— LONG LINES: The number of Long Island families receiving food stamps has grown significantly as thousands may lose access following eligibility changes. (Newsday)

— IN THE STREETS: Pro-Palestinian and Pro-Israel protestors were met with a heavy police presence outside Park East Syngogue, which was hosting an event on land sales in Israel. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

The POLITICO Poll results on Americans' views of the SAVE America Act.

Tennessee Republicans on Wednesday unveiled a proposed congressional map that slices into the state’s majority-Black district and will likely secure them an all-GOP federal delegation.

The redraw comes as Republican-led Southern states scramble to enact new maps in the wake of last week’s Supreme Court ruling that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and opened the door to states blowing up blue districts drawn to protect the voting power of racial minorities.

Tennessee’s new map aims to draw the state’s lone Democratic congressional representative — Rep. Steve Cohen — out of his Memphis-area seat by splitting up majority-Black Shelby County. It also divides Maury County, likely delivering a more favorable district to Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who is onthe Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list.

The plan is supported by Republican leadership in both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly and is expected to pass Thursday.

“The Supreme Court has opined that redistricting, like the judicial system, should be color-blind,” said Tenesseee House Speaker Cameron Sexton in a social media post. “The decision indicated states can redistrict based off partisan politics. Today, Tennessee joins other red and blue states in redrawing their congressional maps.”

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, called the state assembly into a special session on Friday following the Supreme Court ruling. The assembly adopted a set of rules limiting public comment in an attempt to expedite the new map.

“House Republicans remain well-positioned to re-elect our incumbents, compete aggressively across the map, and grow the majority in November,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Reilly Richardson said in a statement.

Andrew Howard contributed reporting.

Former ICE official Madison Sheahan lost a GOP primary in a battleground Ohio House district on Tuesday, a relief to Republicans who worried she could sabotage their chances of flipping the seat.

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin won the GOP nomination in the 9th Congressional District for the second cycle in a row, and will face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in November. He lost to Kaptur by less than one percentage point in 2024.

Republicans see the seat as a prime pickup opportunity after the Ohio legislature redrew the state’s congressional map to make the district more favorable for Republicans.

Merrin’s victory comes with a sigh of relief from Republicans in the state who raised concerns about Sheahan’s background — she served as former deputy ICE director under former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem — being a soft target for Kaptur in a general election.

Sheahan drew attacks from fellow Republicans in the primary for her role in overseeing President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement operations in major cities, which triggered violent confrontations and protests.

Those clashes culminated in the killing of two American citizens by immigration officials in Minneapolis. Sheahan launched her campaign days after the killing of Renee Good, but before the death of Alex Pretti.

Trump didn’t endorse ahead of the primary, but the race was defined in part by candidates seeking to be the most MAGA candidate in the field. Sheahan ran TV ads touting her role at ICE and her connection to the Trump administration. Merrin went up with an ad in the race’s final days highlighting the endorsement he received from Trump during his 2024 campaign.

Kaptur starts the general election fight with a significant resource advantage over Merrin. Federal Election Commission filings from mid-April showed Kaptur with $3.1 million in cash on hand, dwarfing Merrin’s $189,000 in reserves.

Both the DCCC and the NRCC are expected to invest significantly in the race.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Vice President JD Vance was greeted warmly by Republicans in Iowa on Tuesday, with would-be caucus goers and strategists optimistically curious about his potential as a 2028 presidential contender.

But first, they’re hoping he can help turn the economy around.

Vance's fate is unavoidably linked to President Donald Trump's. He'll either carry the mantle of Trump’s accomplishments all the way into his own term in the White House — or be dragged down by Trump's dismal approval ratings, which have spiraled amid an unpopular war in Iran and voters' economic pessimism.

During Vance’s first trip as vice president to the early caucus state — where he was campaigning for Republican Rep. Zach Nunn at a rally in a manufacturing warehouse in this battleground House district — Vance's close ties with Trump were on full display. He credited the president repeatedly for tariffs, tax cuts and agriculture industry aid. And he avoided any mention of 2028.

But his association with Trump's agenda presents a high-risk, high-reward proposition that could make or break his political future, operatives and rallygoers said.

“That's the risk of being part of an administration,” Iowa GOP strategist David Kochel said. “This is the Kamala Harris problem.”

Rep. Randy Feenstra, who is running for governor, said in between shaking hands with attendees that Iowans “absolutely” associate Vance with Trump and expressed confidence that the White House can deliver outcomes that benefit the state.

“We’re all in this together,” he said. “We trust Trump and the vice president and what they’re doing, and things are going to be great.”

Republicans in Iowa are loath to turn their back on Trump, the 2024 caucus winner who remains deeply popular among the base. Faded Trump-Vance campaign signs still line the rural roads around the state, and Iowa Republicans said they remained largely optimistic that Trump, with Vance by his side, can steer the economy in the right direction.

In a brief post-rally interview, Nunn said part of the benefit of the vice president’s trip was allowing Iowa Republican officials to “share what they want to see out of the next leader in 2028.”

But Americans’ patience for the administration’s economic policy to have a positive effect is wearing thin. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday found 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy and 76 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of cost of living issues. And even as Vance blamed former President Joe Biden’s administration for the teetering economy, an April POLITICO Poll found 46 percent of Americans feel Trump bears at least some responsibility for the state of the economy.

And the economic effects of Trump’s policies are particularly hard felt in Iowa’s vast agriculture industry. Trump’s tariff regime blocked off markets that had been reliable purchasers of U.S. agriculture goods, while the war in Iran has spiked the cost of diesel, which farmers depend on heavily.

Jake Chapman, a former president of the Iowa Senate who has advised multiple Republican presidential candidates in Iowa, said the conflict and the trade negotiations with other countries are top of mind for Iowa Republicans.

“A lot of people are thinking about foreign policy in particular, and how that impacts ag inputs and our agriculture economy,” he said.

In his speech, Vance acknowledged that the Trump administration hasn’t fully delivered on its economic promises. “We got a lot more work to do,” Vance told the crowd of hundreds. “We recognize that work. We're excited about that work. That's why you sent us to Washington, D.C.”

Still, those negative feelings towards Trump appear to be spilling over to Vance. That same poll found 48 percent of Americans disapprove of Vance — slightly worse than other senior Trump administration officials, including FBI Director Kash Patel, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and fellow potential 2028 candidate Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio’s ascension in the 2028 shadow primary — both in the eyes of Americans and in standing with Trump’s inner circle — further complicates Vance’s path to the nomination. Eric Branstad, the son of former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and adviser to Trump’s three presidential campaigns in Iowa, said Vance’s portfolio may not resonate with Iowans as much as Rubio’s in an administration juggling multiple high-profile foreign conflicts.

“They've watched the secretary of state completely perform. He's been put in all of the tough spots, and he has overperformed,” Branstad said. “The vice president is performing great. It's just not been as noticeable as the secretary of state.”

Vance, however, has gotten an early start on building a campaign infrastructure, should he so choose to activate it. He has been a frequent surrogate and fundraiser for the GOP’s midterm operation and has campaigned for Republicans in battleground seats around the country. On Tuesday, he voted in Ohio’s competitive 1st District GOP primary and headlined a fundraiser in Oklahoma before travelling to Iowa.

“He’s the man who’s leading the charge to win the midterms,” Nunn said during his remarks.

Even as Vance stayed focused on this year’s elections on Tuesday, some Republicans are ready to look beyond the midterms. GOP gubernatorial candidate Adam Steen said on the outskirts of the rally he thinks Iowa Republicans are eager to organize around the next generation of party leadership.

“I don’t know why not just start talking about 2028,” Steen said. “We need to know who we’re going to be getting behind. And if they did that now, I don’t think it’d offend anybody. I think it’d be a great thing.”

The vice president’s office declined to comment on Vance’s thinking about a future presidential campaign.

Whether or not the vice president can carry the ideological torch for Trump’s political movement may depend on how closely Vance — or any 2028 hopeful — can align with Trump. Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann said at the rally he doesn’t believe the next Republican presidential nominee necessarily has to appeal directly to Trump’s base to be successful.

“The Republican Party is multifaceted,” Kaufmann said. “We have MAGA voters… We have Christian evangelicals, we have business, we have Libertarians. I think all of them together are going to unite around some of the basic principles that everybody shares.”

Yet being Trump’s vice president brings certain advantages with Republican voters. Even if Vance isn’t afforded the goodwill that brought the president a dominant wire-to-wire favorite in the 2024 Republican primaries, Kochel said Vance “gets one of the gold tickets” in the contest.

“[Vance] will be the front-runner going into any caucuses that we have here in Iowa,” GOP governor candidate and state Rep. Eddie Andrews said on the sidelines of Tuesday’s rally.

But Iowa caucusgoers are notoriously scrupulous when vetting future world leaders. And Nunn acknowledged that Vance will at some point need to forge his own path to leading the party.

“Nobody can walk in Donald Trump's footsteps, because it's Donald Trump,” Nunn said.

President Donald Trump flexed his grip on the GOP base in Indiana on Tuesday, vanquishing a majority of the Republican state senators who had dared cross him on redistricting.

It was a show of force in the year’s first major test of Trump’s power over the GOP. Trump aligned groups dumped millions against the eight GOP lawmakers who blocked his effort to gerrymander the state. And on Tuesday night, at least five lost reelection.

Trump’s loyal and energized supporters turned out to punish the incumbents, showing that his endorsement remains the gold-standard of GOP politics. That’s a bright flashing red warning to any Republicans who might be eyeing a break from Trump as he approaches the back half of his second term in office.

The victories came after a combined $13.5 million in spending poured into typically low-profile state Senate races, most of it for Trump’s candidates.

“It's a sign that the party's ready to follow the president on this and also turn over a new leaf, and get younger, newer leaders in the state Senate,” said David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, which put more than $2 million in the race.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 35

VORNADO CHIEF SLAMS MAMDANI: Billionaire real estate magnate Steve Roth is standing strong with fellow billionaire Ken Griffin in his spat with Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Instead of being singled out and scorned in viral videos, Roth, CEO of Vornado Realty Trust, thinks the ultra-rich should be “praised and thanked,” and said calls to tax them more are akin to some racial slurs.

“I must say that I consider the phrase tax the rich — quote tax the rich — when spit out with anger and contempt by politicians both here and across the country, to be just as hateful as some disgusting racial slurs, and even the phrase ‘from the river to the sea,’” Roth said, referring to the controversial rallying cry used by pro-Palestinian activists, during a Tuesday earnings call.

Roth decried Mamdani’s social media video on the proposed pied-à-terre tax — in which the mayor used Griffin’s $238 million second-home as a backdrop — as “irresponsible and dangerous.” Griffin, CEO of the hedge fund Citadel, was offended by the video, and according to The Wall Street Journal, his chief operating officer suggested Citadel may pause its $6 billion plan to develop a Midtown office tower with Vornado and Rudin Management.

“We are all shocked that our young mayor would pull this stunt in front of Ken's home and single him out for ridicule,” said Roth, who brought up the “blunder” unprompted before launching into a six-minute rant about the mayor.

On the planned office redevelopment at 350 Park Avenue, Roth said “it's a good bet that we will go all in.” But he added that “this fence cannot be mended by a short, terse, insincere private apology.”

City Hall did not immediately return a request for comment. Mamdani ran on a pledge to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthiest New Yorkers, but Gov. Kathy Hochul has resisted that push — save for the pied-à-terre tax.

Griffin further blasted Mamdani at a conference Tuesday while voicing fears the video could spark political violence, noting the CEO of United Healthcare was “killed just a few blocks from my house.”

Roth on Tuesday stressed the significant contributions of the city’s wealthiest residents to its tax base and said these members of the so-called one-percent are “not enemies” and are “at the top of the great American economic pyramid for a reason.”

Roth, who donated generously to Mamdani’s opponent — former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — in last year’s election, went on to ponder: “Maybe we can draft Ken to become active and lead an effort to educate New York voters and to elect right-minded candidates.”

For now, he wants the city’s democratic socialist mayor — who, he allowed, is “young, smart and energetic” — to be friendlier to billionaires.

“What I beg my mayor to do is to begin every day being business-welcoming and business-friendly as his first priority,” Roth said. “That's the only way to get the growth and financial wherewithal to accomplish his programs, some of which I must say are interesting and valid.” — Janaki Chadha

From the Capitol

CHECKING IN ON LAWLER LAND: The crowded and competitive Democratic primary to replace Republican Rep. Mike Lawler just got a pulse check — and the out-of-district military vet who’s wooed party insiders with her compelling biography has some ground to make up.

A new poll of likely Democratic primary voters commissioned by left-leaning underdog Effie Phillips-Staley shows Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson leading the pack with 26 percent of the vote, an 11-point lead over Cait Conley, who served in the Army for 16 years and netted 15 percent of the vote. Still, 48 percent of those polled were undecided.

The poll was shared with Playbook and first reported in left-leaning outlet Zeteo. It was conducted by the left-leaning firm Data for Progress from April 17 to 24, about a week after former Briarcliff Manor Mayor Peter Chatzky dropped out of the race. The survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points, and respondents were quizzed online and via text.

“This Democratic primary clown car keeps producing surprises, but Conley's flameout might be the biggest yet,” Lawler’s campaign manager Ciro Riccardi said in a statement to Playbook.

But beyond NY-17, the poll also provided some interesting tea leaves for Democrats weighing where to land on one of the most contentious issues ahead of the midterms: the conflict in the Middle East. Even in this suburban, heavily-Jewish congressional district outside New York City, Israel is increasingly unpopular with Democratic voters.

The poll found 44 percent of Democratic voters sympathize more with Palestinians than Israelis, with 18 percent favoring the Jewish state. Twenty-three percent of respondents sympathized with both equally and 11 percent sympathized with neither.

And if that wasn’t surprising enough, Mamdani is so far not proving to be the political pain point for swing district Democrats that Republicans had hoped. In the hills of Rockland and Westchester counties, Mamdani has an 80 percent favorability rating with Democratic voters, with just 16 percent of respondents viewing him unfavorably, per the poll.

In the survey’s initial polling question on the primary, Phillips-Staley trailed behind Conley and Davidson at 8 percent. But after respondents were flooded with messaging on her opponents, Phillips-Staley’s support jumped to 31 points, just above .

The poll also tested negative messaging on Phillips-Staley, including the fact that she apparently “owns stocks in casino companies, defense contractors, and other industries that profit off the backs of working Americans,” according to one of the messages tested in the poll. — Jason Beeferman

NOT FONDA THIS IDEA: Actress and activist Jane Fonda is weighing into the politics of the Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline.

The Williams Co. project, which was boosted by the Trump administration last month during a ceremonial groundbreaking event, would deliver fracked gas from Pennsylvania to New York City and Long Island. Despite rejecting water quality permits for the project in prior years, both New York and New Jersey awarded those permits last November, sparking ire from environmentalists. Advocacy groups sued both states over the about-face.

On Wednesday, the New Jersey Tidelands Resource Council will consider awarding a permit to the pipeline project. It is unclear what the project’s fate will be if the council does not approve the permit.

“You have the opportunity to exercise leadership on this issue that will resonate all over the United States,” Fonda wrote in a letter to Sherrill this week.

“If the pipeline is rejected by the Tidelands Resource Council, that rejection will be a giant victory for New Jersey’s environment and the world’s climate,” the letter later added.

A spokesperson for Sherrill declined to comment on the letter.

While Sherrill, like Hochul, supports an all-of-the-above approach to energy policy, Hochul has cited affordability concerns in her defense of the Department of Environmental Conservation’s decision to issue the water quality certification, arguing that she needs to "govern in reality" amid skyrocketing bills and the Trump administration's antipathy to renewables.

Sherrill, while also focused on affordability, is in a tough spot as the pipeline would not deliver any energy to New Jersey. She has not weighed in on the project since taking office, but she criticized the pipeline while she was governor-elect for doing “nothing to lower electric bills for New Jersey residents.” — Mona Zhang

FROM CITY HALL

IT’S IN THE BAG: Carl Wilson was officially crowned the winner of a high-stakes City Council race today after ranked-choice tabulations put him more than 2,000 votes ahead of Lindsey Boylan, his closest competitor whose defeat is seen as a black eye for Mamdani.

Wilson’s victory was already all but certain after Election Day on April 28, as he trounced Boylan by a wide margin in early ballot returns.

But since no candidate secured a simple majority in the April 28 results, the city Board of Elections needed to run ranked-choice tallies.

Those tabulations, released by the board this afternoon, show Wilson won after three rounds of ranked choice tallying with 7,863 ballots, or 59.4 percent of the vote total.

That put him well ahead of Boylan, who netted 5,373 ballots, or 40.6 percent of the vote total, the ranked-choice tallies show. The other two candidates in the special election for the 3rd Council District, Layla Law-Gisiko and Leslie Boghosian Murphy, were eliminated in the third and second ranked-choice rounds, respectively.

“This victory belongs to all of us,” Wilson said in a statement after the release of the ranked-choice results. “From the start, this was a true grassroots effort powered by neighbors, volunteers, unions and supporters who showed up day after day. We build something real together, and these results reflect that.”

Last week’s special election was called because former Council Member Erik Bottcher, who used to count Wilson as his Council chief of staff, vacated his seat after being elected to the state Senate in February.

After initially being seen as a shoo-in for Wilson, the race was scrambled in mid-April when Mamdani endorsed Boylan, a onetime adviser to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo who became the first woman to accuse him of sexual misconduct in 2020 (Cuomo has denied the accusations). Mamdani’s move made the race the first true test of his endorsement power since his inauguration and created a proxy war between him and more moderate Democrats backing Wilson, including Council Speaker Julie Menin.

Read the story from Chris Sommerfeldt in POLITICO Pro. 

ACCESS DENIED: The city’s Department of Investigation released a report today outlining several ways its oversight of the Administration for Children’s Services is stymied by both state law and a state agency, leaving the municipal watchdog unable to properly probe some of the most sensitive work done in government.

The problem is twofold.

First, a provision in state law prohibits investigators from accessing ACS records of unfounded accusations of child abuse or maltreatment. A second provision ices out the department if a case is put into a deferral program that avoids a full-blown investigation of a caretaker.

Often, that is the very information investigators need to draw a conclusion in instances where children are harmed.

“If there is a history of unfounded investigations by ACS, we’re unable to go back and look and see: Were these investigations conducted properly? Was there some misconduct? Was there a home visit that a caseworker said they did but never actually did?” DOI’s newly installed commissioner, Nadia Shihata, said in an interview. “We can’t look into it because we can’t even access the records.”

The rules can have tragic consequences: In 2025, DOI was prohibited from accessing the full case history in 17 out of 18 child deaths it was notified of. In 2024, it was denied full records in 13 out of 16 child fatalities. And the year before that, the same thing happened in 19 out of 25 cases, according to the department.

The state Office of Child and Family Services at times can present its own roadblocks. State law requires DOI to obtain authorization from that office before receiving nearly any type of record relating to children who have encountered ACS, placing a drag on inquiries. And DOI has found the state office often goes above and beyond what the statutes lay out, excessively delaying or limiting records in a way that limits DOI’s ability to investigate potential shortfalls in city service delivery.

“What we want to look into affects the most vulnerable children in the city,” said Shihata, who noted the department is supporting state legislation that would alter the rules and allow DOI more access. “It’s frustrating.”

The state countered that limitations on data sharing exist to protect the children involved but that it cooperates with DOI to the extent it can. Spokesperson Daniel Marans noted investigators are entitled to full records in criminal cases via law enforcement bodies and can obtain unredacted files with permission from the affected family.

“OCFS is deeply committed to the wellbeing of children and families and takes seriously its obligation under New York State law to protect the identities of children experiencing abuse and maltreatment or institutionalization,” Marans said in a statement. — Joe Anuta

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Progressive organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier is homing in on Spanish-speaking voters as she vies to unseat Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat in next month’s primary.

Avila Chevalier’s campaign is going up with its first broadcast ad of the primary, backed by an initial buy of more than $165,000. The Spanish-language spot leans into an issue that Democrats have been using in primaries across the country to activate their base: Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

In the spot, Avila Chevalier touts her work to release people detained by ICE, and vows to abolish the agency in Congress. She also takes a swipe at Espaillat, whom she claims aided President Donald Trump by funding ICE — a reference to votes he took in line with many other Democrats approving DHS funding.

During the latest DHS funding standoff, Espaillat was adamant about not providing funding for immigration enforcement without guardrails.

Hispanic residents make up around half of Espaillat’s district, which covers parts of Manhattan and the Bronx, according to Census data. The five-term incumbent is chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

Avila Chevalier, who is backed by the city chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, is running to Espaillat’s left and looking to harness the progressive energy that got Mamdani elected last year. The mayor has not endorsed in this race. — Madison Fernandez

IN OTHER NEWS

— ‘NOT MY BOSS’: Brooklyn police captain James Wilson has been transferred following a video capturing him trashing Mamdani at the scene of anti-immigration enforcement protests. (Gothamist)

— JUDGE OF CHARACTER: The opaque, party-controlled and patronage-driven system that selects and assigns New York City judges raises concerns about accountability and persistent abuses. (Hell Gate)

— GETTING SQUEEZED: New York’s budget woes are forcing upstate cities to implement government layoffs and service cuts as officials say state and federal funding are not meeting rising costs. (Syracuse.com)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.